Here's an interesting e-mail we received from our friend Michael Miller -- a past president of New York County Lawyers' Association and a respected Trusts and Estates attorney -- who is spearheading local efforts here in New York City to get a Democrat elected President of the United States.
Dear Lucas,
My wife and I just returned from an amazing trip to New Hampshire and I wanted to share a few thoughts and observations with you.
We are in the very early rounds of one of the most fascinating elections in modern history. Less than one-half of one percent of Americans have cast their ballots in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary election. And Iowa and New Hampshire have shown that the polls are completely unreliable and that this presidential election can turn on a dime.
A Brief Look Back: Just a few weeks ago, according to most polls, Clinton was 17 points ahead of Obama in New Hampshire, her ultimate nomination a virtual certainty. Then, she came in third in Iowa and every poll and pundit was certain Obama would handily defeat Clinton in New Hampshire - the only question was by how large a margin. Some even wondered whether Clinton would continue on after a humiliating defeat in New Hampshire. Surprise - Clinton won, albeit by a small margin. Now, with Clinton's victory, some are arguing that she has regained the momentum and a few even wonder whether Obama will survive this loss.
On the Republican side, a few weeks ago, McCain was declared "dead in the water" and Romney was the presumptive winner in Iowa and New Hampshire, with the best financed and well-organized Republican campaign. Then, Huckabee defeated him in Iowa and McCain defeated him in New Hampshire and Romney is making a "last stand" in Michigan. A few weeks ago, according to national polls, Giuliani was way in front of the pack at approximately 50% - now he's running third or fourth in most national polls, with between 15 and 20%.
The inexorable message: The nominations are up for grabs. To win the Democratic nomination, a candidate must have 1,100 delegates. So far, Clinton has 24 delegates, Obama has 19 and Edwards has 13. Delegates are generally apportioned, not winner-take-all. Thus, there is a very long way to go before a nominee is certain and it appears that this will be an unpredictable, volatile and extended campaign.
While John Edwards did not do as well in New Hampshire as we had hoped and we were all surprised by the Obama phenomenon in Iowa, John's showing in both states was respectable. Indeed, for a variety of reasons, New Hampshire is probably the most difficult state in America for him and he did substantially better there in '08 than he did in '04. Now, we turn our attention to South Carolina, John's home state. There are no sure things in politics but it's a pretty good bet that it's going to be very interesting there.
Also, something relevant has been happening across the nation over the past few weeks: There are a number of signs that as America has begun to tune in to the debates, John Edwards' message has begun to gain traction. I am not going to discuss John's climbing national poll numbers, as polls are clearly unreliable. However, the anecdotal evidence suggests that the American public is beginning to respond to John's strong, persuasive and bold message of change.
Now, what you are certainly expecting: The pitch. In order to take advantage of the move South, John needs your help. We are grateful for your past generosity but in order to effectively continue this historic campaign, we need your further assistance. Just a tiny fraction of the nation has spoken, only a few delegates have been selected and John intends to carry this historic campaign for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party all the way to the convention. Please go to our website at www.JohnEdwards.com and make a contribution today.Thanks again for your support.
Michael