Indicators for Trump in the Run Up to the 2018 Midterms

Will there be a new word coined by President Trump that reflects the midterm outcome for 2018, whether that be a loss, or a break with historical precedent as his party wins more seats? What signs should we watch for that will predict the outcome?

First and foremost is presidential job approval, which -- averaging 39% in the month of December -- gives President Trump a very poor chance of bucking the midterm odds if it holds at this level.

Trump's 20-point approval deficit in recent Gallup polling does not bode well for him, in part because none of the past five presidents saw an increase in their approval rating in the year before their first midterm. Ronald Reagan's approval rating fell from a net +18 positive in November 1981 to a net -3 in November 1982, as the country sank into recession. In November 1993, Clinton had a net positive job approval rating (+5), while by midterm election-time, the positive margin had vanished and his party lost majority control of the U.S. House. President Obama, one year out from his first midterm election, also had a comfortably positive net job approval rating (+13), but that also disappeared by November 2010 and his party lost majority control of the U.S. House.

Both Bushes suffered approval declines in their second year, but because they started from such a high point in November of their first year, they still went into their first midterms with strong approval. Additionally, the continued focus on the 9/11 terrorist attacks somewhat insulated George W. Bush in 2002 from historical trends, not only maintaining control of the U.S. House, but actually picking up eight seats.

Another key indicator to watch in the 2018 elections is measurements of generic congressional ballot preferences immediately before the election; these try to simulate a "party vote" across the nation. Other variables have to be taken into consideration, such as the inertia of incumbency, the state of the economy, media coverage of the president himself and the demographics of the various 435 congressional districts.

The most important variable to watch for is the intensity of the political base on both sides and how this manifests itself in voter turnout of Democrats and Republicans. The real bottom line for every midterm election is "turnout."

Obviously, the preferred outcome for the Trump administration in the 2018 midterm elections would be for something akin to the 2002 Bush midterm, when 3.5 million more votes were cast nationally for Republicans than Democrats -- an indication of stronger GOP turnout. That is seemingly unlikely absent a galvanizing national event such as 9/11. But even the 1990 midterm during the senior George Bush's presidency, when the Republicans lost only eight seats, would be a win for Trump. He will, on the other hand, want to avoid the wipeouts of 1994 and 2010 that swept the majority party, then Democrats, out of power.

Many journalists and political observers are already forecasting that the 2018 midterm will be a "wave election" and that Democrats will achieve great election success via a campaign to reverse Trump's policies. Data driven analytics have shown a much closer race. According to an analysis by the Huffington Post in August, the Republicans would lose control of the U.S. House by about seven seats (Republican control going into 2018 is +24). More recent forecasting models by Decision Desk HQ offer a range of outcomes, from Republicans retaining a three-seat majority, to the Democrats winning by nine seats.

These predictions are all plausible since the party out of power historically regains some of that power back in the first midterm election. With President Trump's comparatively low job approval ratings, it is likely that the advantage this time around will go to the party out of power, the Democrats.

Bottom Line

The 2018 House midterm elections are destined to be among the most watched and interesting races in recent times and the scene doesn't look good for Republicans. Trump seems to believe he will improve his party's chances of maintaining majority control by making legislative progress on some of his remaining big campaign promises, such as health care, infrastructure repair and immigration reform. He also believes the recent tax bill will help the Republicans once voters see more money in their paychecks in 2018. This would give him the opportunity to "nationalize" the 2018 midterm elections based upon a potentially improved general economy, particularly if there is continued job growth.

The stakes are certainly high, as even average losses would jeopardize the Republican majority, and therefore Trump's legislative agenda, for at least the next two years.

Will history repeat itself, or will Trump -- whose name was once synonymous with gaming and casinos -- manage to defy the odds stacked against him once again?