Party, Ideology and Race Play Key Roles in Trump Approval
by Andrew Dugan
Story Highlights
Like past presidents, Trump's approval is primarily determined by party
Race/Ethnicity and ideology also play a major role in shaping opinions
Gender and marital status have lesser effect on Trump approval
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Despite President Donald Trump's unconventional
style, Americans' assessments of his job performance as president
are largely shaped by the same familiar social fissures that have long
divided U.S. public opinion -- especially party affiliation. Beyond this,
Americans' political ideology and racial/ethnic identification are
important factors in shaping presidential approval.
These results are based on a multivariate statistical analysis examining
the relationship between key demographic or attitudinal traits and presidential
approval, based on 28,947 interviews conducted Nov. 1-Dec. 30, 2017. Though
this analysis focuses on the final two months of the year, examining a
longer period would largely produce similar results for two reasons: Trump's
approval rating was quite stable
throughout 2017 and, to the extent that it has changed, it has changed in mostly similar
ways across key subgroups.
While presidential approval is known to vary by party identification, race,
ideology, gender and other factors, the multivariate model can help discern
whether those observable differences are primarily a function of relationships
of those variables to party identification, or if some have effects beyond party.
Items with a strong or moderate relationship to presidential job approval
are essential for assessing the likelihood that a person will rate Trump's
performance positively. For instance, knowing party affiliation alone
can correctly predict over 80% of cases regarding Trump's approval
rating. Political ideology, in turn, can correctly anticipate about three-fourths
of the cases. Race/Ethnic identity also adds important predictive power.
Traits with a weak relationship play a secondary role in understanding
Trump approval. The moderate predictors include gender, whether a person
lives in a rural or low-population-density area, religiosity, marital
status, age and whether a person has attended graduate school.
The following sections examine in greater detail the overall relationships
between these political and demographic variables and approval of Trump.
Republicans More Likely Than Democrats to Approve of Trump, by Almost 12-to-1
Political party affiliation is the most dominant factor influencing public
opinion regarding Trump's job performance. As would be expected, Republicans
are very likely to approve of the president's performance, while Democrats
are very unlikely to approve. In the last two months of 2017, the gap
between parties on this item was 74 percentage points (81% approval among
Republicans and 7% among Democrats) -- essentially on par with the
average gap throughout Barack Obama's entire presidency.
Presidential Job Approval, by Party Affiliation
% Approve
Approve
%
Republicans
81
Independents, lean Republican
71
Independents, no lean
26
Independents, lean Democratic
8
Democrats
7
Aggregated results
GALLUP, Nov. 1-Dec. 30, 2017
The approval gap is less extreme for independents who lean toward the Republican
Party. A strong majority of independents who lean Republican approve of
Trump (71%), 10 points below outright Republicans' approval rating.
The very low approval rating among independents who lean Democratic, meanwhile,
is essentially the same rate as committed Democrats. Only about a quarter
of "pure" independents (i.e., do not lean toward either party)
approve of Trump.
Other Important Indicators Are Ideology and Race/Ethnicity
Ideology is also a key predictor of Trump approval. Nearly seven in 10
conservatives (67%) approve of Trump's job performance. His approval
rating falls steeply among politically moderate individuals; about three
in 10 give the president positive job reviews. Ten percent of liberals
approve of the president.
Ideology, of course, is strongly tied to party affiliation but has an independent
effect within party groups. Conservative Republicans are notably more
supportive than liberal and moderate Republicans. Similarly, liberal Democrats
assess Trump's job performance slightly more harshly than moderate
Democrats do, and significantly more harshly than conservative Democrats do.
Presidential Job Approval, by Ideology and Party ID
% Approve
U.S. adults
Republicans
Democrats
%
%
%
Conservatives
67
88
18
Moderates
29
66
8
Liberals
10
58
3
Aggregated results
GALLUP, Nov. 1-Dec. 30, 2017
Race is also a highly salient factor in shaping opinions of Trump's
job performance, as explored in a
previous Gallup analysis. In particular, Trump fares poorly with nonwhite Americans -- 16% approved
of the president in the last two months of 2017, compared with 47% of
white Americans -- though he is underwater with both groups.
Presidential Job Approval, by Race/Ethnicity and Party ID
% Approve
U.S. adults
Republicans
Democrats
%
%
%
Non-Hispanic whites
47
83
9
Nonwhites
16
59
5
Aggregated results
GALLUP, Nov. 1-Dec. 30, 2017
Disaggregating the umbrella "nonwhite" category shows that Trump
is especially unpopular with black Americans, 9% of whom approve of how
he handles his job. About one in five Hispanics (18%) approve of Trump's
performance, while 30% of Americans who identify as Asian or another nonwhite
race/ethnicity approve of the president.
Racial/Ethnic identification plays a role in shaping presidential approval,
even when considering party identification. For example, 83% of white
Republicans approve of Trump, compared with 59% of nonwhite Republicans.
Gender and Marital Status Have Weak Effect on Approval
The traditional political gender gap is very much evident in assessing
Trump's performance. This gap continued in the last two months of
2017, with 43% of men approving of the president compared with 31% of
women. This gap is mostly explained by the tendency for men to identify
as Republicans and women as Democrats -- but within both partisan groups,
men are slightly more likely than women to approve of the president.
Presidential Job Approval, by Gender and Party ID
% Approve
U.S. adults
Republicans
Democrats
%
%
%
Men
43
83
10
Women
31
78
5
Aggregated results
GALLUP, Nov. 1-Dec. 30, 2017
Trump's approval rating is also divided by marital status, with 44%
of married adults approving of the president compared with 29% of unmarried
adults. Prior Gallup research has noted the growing importance of marriage in
determining party identification, with married adults showing a greater tendency than unmarried adults
to identify as Republican. But even when looking just at Republicans,
married adults remain somewhat more positive than unmarried adults in
terms of presidential approval. This difference, however, does not exist
between married and unmarried Democrats.
Presidential Job Approval, by Marital Status and Party ID
% Approve
U.S. adults
Republicans
Democrats
%
%
%
Married
44
84
7
Unmarried
29
75
7
Aggregated results
GALLUP, Nov. 1-Dec. 30, 2017
The remainder of the weak variables are also well-known dividing lines
in American society --
religiosity, living in a
rural or urban area, education and age. The table below shows Trump's approval rating
among each of these groups in the last two months of 2017, as well as
Trump's rating within each group after taking party into account.
(Note: In the table below, "low-density" county refers to those
counties whose population density falls in the bottom 40% of all counties.)
Presidential Job Approval, by Population Density, Religiosity, Age, Education
and Party ID
% Approve
U.S. adults
Republicans
Democrats
%
%
%
Type of county
Lives in low-density county
47
85
11
Lives in non-low-density county
30
76
5
Religiosity
Highly religious
46
82
9
Moderately religious
37
81
6
Not religious
25
74
4
Age
18-29
25
67
6
30-49
35
79
6
50-64
42
82
7
65+
46
88
9
Education
Did not attend graduate school
38
81
8
Attended graduate school
30
76
2
Aggregated results
GALLUP, Nov. 1-Dec. 30, 2017
Bottom Line
Trump pledged to be a disruptive force as president, one not bound to traditional
political alliances or considerations. However, Trump's support seems
subject to the same forces that have historically shaped public opinion
in the U.S. -- one's party identification and, to a lesser extent,
their race and ideology.
Though Trump is generally an unpopular president, he is well-liked by an
overwhelming majority of Republicans -- which is sometimes seen as his
greatest political strength, particularly when dealing with congressional
Republicans, who are not as popular among their own GOP base. While Trump's
popularity among his base can be a source of political strength for the
president, it may also mask his central political weakness.
Currently, Trump relies heavily on Republicans and political conservatives
for support, with some additional support coming from Americans who may
share certain cultural or demographic backgrounds. Though this support
has been stable over the past year, it is limited, giving Trump the lowest
first-year approval ratings of any elected president in polling history.
If that support is to expand, it will largely require attracting Americans
of different political or demographic backgrounds, something that Trump
has found very difficult to do up until now.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted
Nov. 1-Dec. 30, 2017, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample
of 28,947 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and
the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national
adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at
the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include
computed design effects for weighting.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone
respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas
by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are
selected using random-digit-dial methods.